Here's an extract from something I wrote in November 2005.
--> The equation’s quite simple: the number of gay and bisexual men living in the UK who’ve had a positive HIV test is 26,400 (HPA, 2004 figures) and the percentage of gay and bisexual men who’ve tested positive, according to the last Sigma survey, is 7.2%. This gives us a figure of 377,520 gay and bisexual men (14.3 x 26,400). As the UK adult male population is 23.4 million (2001 Census), this gives us a percentage of the adult male population who are gay or bisexual of 1.62% (“Bisexual” here basically means actively bisexual, rather than theoretical. Calculating the number of lesbians through HIV data is impossible).
Ford Hickson of Sigma thinks such a triangulation “adds up”, and calculated a similar figure himself. Although he stresses that the percentage of men who said they’d tested positive in the Sigma survey is probably an overestimate; “We think gay men with HIV are more likely than those without HIV to take part in surveys like Sigma's, partly out of altruism, but also because it’s a gay community survey and positive men are at the heart of the gay scene.” He believes the figure for gay and bisexual men living with diagnosed HIV is between 4% and 5%, with 4% meaning a higher number of 660,000 gay and bisexual men in the UK, or 2.82% of the adult male population. These figures are far less than has been conventionally thought, but come close to the findings of both the NATSAL surveys. So, could it be that we’re only 1.5%-3%, or between one in 66 or 33? Are there really only about 350,000–700,000 gay and bisexual men in the UK? It could be an underestimate, but this year’s Sigma survey will provide an opportunity to compare it with another – and arguably more precise - triangulation, as it asks how many men have entered Civil Partnerships. Ford Hickson says that results in so far appear to confirm a figure of around 2.6%.
PS Send me a message if you want a full copy.
Posts
I'm still confused and I may be missing the point entirely but I don't see how the percentage of gay men who have had a HIV test and who turn out to be positive relative to the entire male population of the UK shows the percentage of the male population that is gay.
ReplyDeleteThat would only work if HIV tests were mandatory and everyone had one, surely? Even then it's a pretty flawed method I would've thought.
The amount of gay men who had a HIV test relative to the overall amount of men who had a HIV test might be more accurate but I would assume that would be an inaccurately high number as I guess gay men are more likely to get tested.
I'm not particularly well and my brain's even thicker than usual, so...
With respect, you may want to read it again.
ReplyDeletex
Okay, can you help me here then please?
DeleteThe 7.2% figure is the percentage of gay men who have had a HIV test who have tested positive, yes?
So of all the gay men who had a HIV test, 7.2% are positive?
Can you read? - it then says this is likely to be an over-estimate!
DeleteYes, but the amount of gay men who are HIV positive is a moot point, surely?
DeleteThe pertinent figure is the amount of gay men who have had a HIV test.
That's a solid figure of gay and bisexual men (HIV positive and negative) - the problem is using that figure relative to the entire UK male population, because there will be many more gay men who haven't had a HIV test.
As I say, if HIV testing was mandatory then the entire male population would be important in relation to the amount of gay men who have had a HIV test.
But it isn't mandatory, so the figures are not reliable in determining the percentage of the male population what are gay or bisexual.
What am I missing, please???
Please can you read what I actually wrote?
DeleteThanks.
:'(
DeleteIt's interesting to me - I wonder if the percentage fluctuates to a significant degree over time or if it's always been roughly the same.
i recall radio 4's "more or less" tackled this a year or two ago; it's probably still floating about the internets and well worth tracking down. i remember this number being particularly tricky to nail down. they test the competing metrics, show the workings out and everything. but fuck me if i can recall a single bit of the conclusion. but i think possibly he said the 2.5 is not unreasonable but because of the sensitivity of the issue that we can never really know yadda yadda.
ReplyDeleteand yet anecdotally and experientially we seem to know that 2-3 figure is far too low just as much as we know the 1 in 10 is unrealistically high. i blame the married closeted or bisexual guys for skewing the figures, they're unlikely to show up in any survey -- but they certainly show up in my neighbourhood.
and how to take into account those self-convinced "straight" men, not actively bisexual, who nevertheless fantasise and jack off to the idea of sex with men. certainly that stated figure for bisexuals is laughable. indeed it's not unlikely that in the final analysis true kinsey sixers are in fact the minority rump of men who have sexual desire for other men. but we'll probably never know.
Thanks - will try and track this More Or Less thingy down (A programme I love, by the way).
Deletex
I usually post all comments, but won't post a recent one about me cause it's pretty offensive - even if it was ironic.
ReplyDeleteIt's a bit rich for you, of all people, to censor 'offensive' comments!
ReplyDeleteI won't post things which are libellous - sorry to be a bore.
DeleteHere's the link to the "More Or Less" podcast (it's dated 1st October 2010):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/moreorless/all
I remember being struck by a survey in the Independent on Sunday decades ago (when I was at school and knew I was one of The Gays but, at that stage, still in the closet) where the result showed that around 2% of the population considered themselves to be homosexual.
Brilliant - thanks - will listen after I've had my David Sedaris fix.
Deletex
"...2% of the population considered themselves to be homosexual"
ReplyDeletethe CONSIDERED THEMSELVES part is the real problem.
i've been with guys who swore blind they weren't even so much as bi let alone gay, just horny or whatever. aghhhhhhh!
that said in surveys i'll usually only label myself as "non-heterosexual" so i don't know if i'm included in the head count or not, or whether i'm unintentionally being a hindrance.
It's the olde spaghetti theory - straight til they get hot.
DeleteI find this debate fascinating.
ReplyDeleteI'm always infuriating my friends by asserting that most men are gay - either in actuality or potentiality (i.e. right time & right place or "God, was I drunk last night" syndrome). I've met very few men I consider to be exclusively heterosexual - even if they do!
Just as a social experiment, log on to Gaydar, do a 'local search' and, you'll find that most faceless profiles classify themselves as 'not out' or 'married' or 'bisexual'. And although these are men who actively seek sex with other men, they would never identify themselves as 'gay', 'homosexual' or 'bisexual' in any census or survey. I just did a Gaydar search of 'within 2 miles' and it brought up 78 profiles (I'm on the almost rural outskirts of Bristol by the way!) of which 38 are married or single bi men and not out.
I may not be expressing myself very clearly here, but I firmly believe that the percentage of men who have sex (or desire to have sex) with other men is much, much higher than ever imagined...!
All quite clear.
DeleteBut don't some men on Gaydar say they're straight or bi or married cause they know it increases their fuckability with some/many gay men?
Gosh. I'm shocked and appalled! Do you mean to say that some men actually tell lies?
ReplyDeleteThankfully, though, everyone on Gaydar is completely honest about their dick size...
Delete...and their age...
ReplyDeleteI REFUSE TO BELIEVE THIS!!!!
Delete