Gay Marriage Polls: Are They Balls? Agree/Disagree

I return once again, with a heavy heart, to the issue of gay marriage. There is more rather one-eyed polling by the campaign against gay marriage, dutifully reported the Telegraph. The way polling commissioned by the lobby opposed to gay marriage is reported by the newspapers and those commissioning it is almost a masterclass in poor interpretation of polls.
Firstly we have the problems of polls conducting using agree/disagree statements, which risk bias in the direction of the statement asked (which I have written about at length here) and often give contradictory answers if properly balanced with statements in the other direction. For example, in this poll 62% of people agreed with the statement “marriage should continue to be definied as a life-long exclusive commitment between a man and a woman”. The campaign against gay marriage have consistently focused on this question and interpreted this as meaning that 62% of people are opposed to gay marriage. However, the same poll found people agreeing by 44% to 38% that “legalising gay marriage is important because maintaining the distinction between civil partnerships and marriage worsens public attitudes towards gay people”. One could just as easily cherry pick that question from the poll and claim that more people support than oppose gay marriage...

Now we have that hoary old chestnut of a poll showing people want a referendum on gay marriage. As previously discussed, if asked in an opinion poll people want a referendum on almost everything – unsurprisingly, given that questions on referendums basically boil down to “would you like to have a say on this or should it be left to the hated politicians to decide”. It doesn’t mean there is some huge untapped demand for a referendum on that particular issue, people support a referendum on anything you ask about (the one exception I have managed to track down was a MORI poll back in 2001 that found people did not want a referendum on abolishing the monarchy)
Why do I keep coming back to this? I think its mostly the consistently credulous and one-sided reporting of polls on gay marriage in some sections of the press. Readers of some newspapers could be forgiven for thinking that the polling showed that the public were opposed to gay marriage, when any fair minded look at the broad range of polling on the issue would show that the balance of opinion is broadly positive towards it.

YouGov's Anthony Wells writing on his blog, UK Polling Report.

Well, worth reading in full for a demolition job on those misleading ComRes polls for Coalition 4 Marriage that are always bigged up in the Daily Telegraph.

Marriage Polls: Christian Miracles

David Cameron’s plans to introduce same-sex marriage could have cost the Tories the support of millions of churchgoers, polling suggests. 

Almost six out of 10 people who attend services regularly say they are less likely to vote Conservative at the next election because of the plans to redefine marriage.

More than a third of those polled said it had no effect on whether they would support the Conservatives but most of them would never vote for the party anyway...

Daily Telegraph. 

But of course this is in the serial gay marriage bashing Telegraph. 
Can you guess who's behind this poll? 
Yup, it's the evangelical Christian fruitloops at Coalition4Marriage.
And it was conducted by ComRes, who've also conducted marriage polls for the Christian Institute and Catholic Voices. 
Here's why they were both discredited by using dubious methods/questions - and, as if by magic, produced results that showed support for gay marriage at about half that of other polls.
How do they do it?

The I: O Dear

Argh!
There's a nice bit of bullfighting by James Ball on The Guardian online on another in-no-way dodgy gay marriage poll by ComRes/Catholic Voices.

David Cameron: Small-C

'A significant social issue for the capital is gay marriage. David Cameron is reportedly wavering on his commitment after a furious backlash from heartland Tories. He says there is an ongoing consultation but he is “clear about my views”, adding, “I ask myself the question, why is it that we deny gay couples the ability to get married, and I don’t think that’s right.”
'His opponents are within his party as well as the Church. “Obviously this is a controversial issue,” says Cameron. “I feel the time for change has come. If you ask, particularly young people, they say this feels like a very natural change to make ... We are not changing what happens in church.”
When I question him about the opposition of the Church, and ask if he has a liberal preference for the next Archbishop of Canterbury, he suddenly looks genuinely upset. “I have said enough. I don’t want to start getting into a fight with the Church.” He adds: “The Conservative Party has been on a journey to where all small-c institutions go, in a modern world, which is that if marriage is good for heterosexuals it is good for gay couples too.”
'I wonder if the rest of the Conservative Party is on the same journey as their leader. Are they tiring of his reforming and modernising? The gains of Ukip in the opinion polls for the London elections are striking.
'The Prime Minister replies: “I am a heartfelt Conservative. The reason I wanted to lead the Conservative Party was that I felt it needed to make important changes, to broaden the base of its support...”

David Cameron pops up in yesterday's London's Evening Standard to back Boris.
Perhaps the last line here is the key one; Cameron took a gamble that gabbling on about his support for gay marriage would get lesbian and gay voters over their Toryphobia, but straight people wouldn't be that bothered either way.
It was a wholly cynical exercise which has backfired. *
And, despite these nice words, I'm still not convinced it will happen under Cameron. 

PS In an accompanying editorial the Standard come out for gay marriage, putting the conservative case; "[Cameron's] instincts are right and reflect a huge shift in public attitudes on the issue. Civil partnerships, once seen by opponents as a radical move, are now an unremarkable fact of British life, both in London and the provinces. We believe that making matrimony available to gay couples is a natural progression from civil partnerships."

* A ComRes/Christian Institute poll just published has 8% of respondents saying Cameron's support for same-sex marriage makes them far less likely to vote Conservative, while 5% say it makes them much more likely to. Hilariously it points out the margin of error is 5%.
When the Tories get a much deserved drubbing in today's elections, it will have fuck-all to do with gay marriage.
It's the economy, stupid. 

Marriage Equality: U-turns & Avalanches

"A survey by pollsters ComRes suggested Mr Cameron’s strong support for same-sex marriage could cost his party up to 30 seats in a general election. The UK Independence Party (Ukip) stands to benefit most from the drop in Tory support on this issue, the survey indicates, in what will be seen as further evidence that the Prime Minister is concentrating on policies that fail to appeal in his party’s heartlands."

The Sunday Telegraph.
This factoid was dropped into an interview with Boris Johnson.
Apropos of nothing, as the Telegraph had pointed out earlier in the article; "Mr Johnson, who takes on Labour’s Ken Livingstone in this week’s mayoral election in London, does not mention issues such as gay marriage and the environment – policies that Mr Cameron has promoted recently, earning him criticism from his party."
The uncitated 30-seats claim is presumably extrapolated from a highly dubious ComRes/Catholic Voices poll.
EDIT: Nope, it was taken from this ComRes/Christian Institute poll, which wasn't published til May, so the "exclusive" result was fed to the journalist. 
That put support for gay marriage at half of that of two other recent polls.
ie The claim is highly dubious and I imagine it's just been fed to the journalist by those well-known liars at Coalition 4 Marriage. 
Needless to say the Mail On Sunday is also hammering away today on the now familiar "vote loser" riff - and are also making hysterical claims they don't back up and that don't stand up that I bet they got from you-know-who.
'U-turn Tory MPs tell constituents: 'We were wrong on gay marriage' in bid to win back voters''
"David Cameron is under intense pressure to ditch his gay marriage initiative amid claims that Tory MPs fear they are 'haemorrhaging' votes over the issue...
"The pressure on Mr Cameron has been increased by warnings that a Tory rebellion in the Commons would eclipse last year's EU referendum revolt, when 81 Conservatives defied the Prime Minister. "Backbenchers are reporting an 'avalanche' of protests from Conservative supporters over the gay marriage initiative championed by Mr Cameron...
"MPs have been so stunned by the scale of the protests that a secret group has been set up by Tory MPs at Westminster to force Mr Cameron to back down. Many of the MPs admit that the 'avalanche' of letters from the Tory grass roots was forcing them to change their views."
There may have been an "avalanche" of letters about this - gay marriage must be a green light to the green ink brigade.
MPs of all parties are quite used to receiving these cranks' hatemail and probably ignore them - just as they ignore most e-petitions.
But how many MPs have actually changed their views?
Interestingly the Mail On Sunday could only find one who claimed this, Philip Lee, the newly-elected nobody for Bracknell. 
That number again - one.
The Mail make another assertion; "The Mail on Sunday has been told that Chief Whip Patrick McLoughlin has privately assured anxious Tory backbenchers that the Prime Minister's same-sex marriage plan will 'not come to a vote'.
"The MPs say Mr McLoughlin told them the controversial proposal will be 'kicked into the long grass'."
As the crisis for David Cameron continues, both within his own party and amongst an electorate with far more pressing problems, I wouldn't be surprised if the Mail On Sunday have actually got this bit right.

Daily Telegraph: Never Mind the Pollocks

'The majority of Conservative MPs believe David Cameron’s same-sex marriage plan is doomed to failure and is a source of deep concern for their constituents.
'An all-party poll of MPs found only 56 per cent believed the proposal to legalise same-sex marriage would succeed, with 41 per cent of Conservatives believing it. Almost as many Tory MPs (37 per cent) believed the proposal will fail and 22 per cent said they were unsure, the survey carried out by ComRes found.

'It means that three out of five Tory MPs have doubts that the plan will go ahead. By contrast, more than two thirds of Labour MPs and almost all Liberal ­Democrat members polled were confident that it would go ahead.

'The poll also found that 60 per cent of MPs did not think that the policy was of “significant importance” to their constituents. Among Tory MPs the proportion rose to 69 per cent...'

The Daily Telegraph. 

The fact that this is in the serial gay-marriage bashing Telegraph should be enough to set alarm bells ringing.
That the "poll" was conducted by ComRes for Coalition For Marriage means it should be taken with a mine of salt.
They've been incredibly mendacious with their marriage equality poll findings before.
Note also how the Telegraph has inverted the news - that a majority of MPs believe the proposal to legalise same-sex marriage comes after how a majority of Tory MPs thought it was "doomed to failure".
And the opening line; "The majority of Conservative MPs believe David Cameron’s same-sex marriage plan is doomed to failure and is a source of deep concern for their constituents", is contradicted by the fact that 69% said they did not think the policy was of "significant importance" to their constituents". 
Another thing that stands out is the omission of the obvious question of how many MPs polled support gay marriage.
ComRes tell me that only 154 MPs replied to their survey - that's less than a quarter - more data later...

Update: Here are the full findings. As above, the questions asked - and not asked - are absolutely ridiculous.

PS The Telegraph runs a companion piece 'The Tory party has lost sight of its true values: 'Decontaminating’ the brand has alienated voters – but there is a way back' which, curiously, does not mention gay marriage explicitly.